Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 1441 LANDED 2:07 PM ET, ~8 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Yesterday

MX 1441 · VRB → IAD

took off 12:21 PM ET · landed 2:07 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.13 mi forecast at IAD that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ IAD usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

VRB (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 1441 · VRB → IAD

Odds over time