MX 2300 · CMH → TPA

departs 7:37 PM ET · arrives 10:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CMH (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 2300 · CMH → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?