MX 2505 · RDU → VRB

took off 3:24 PM ET · expected to land 4:49 PM ET (scheduled 3:22 PM ET → 5:19 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at VRB more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to VRB?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 3pm departures from RDU are often late

↓ Arrivals into VRB at that hour are usually not late

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at RDU that day

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

VRB (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 2505 · RDU → VRB

Odds over time

How late will it get to VRB?