Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 578 LANDED 5:21 PM ET, ~13 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

MX 578 · EWN → MCO

took off 3:54 PM ET · landed 5:21 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at EWN that day

Weather at each end

EWN (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling9,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 578 · EWN → MCO

Odds over time