MX 641 · IAD → VRB

took off 7:54 PM ET · landed 9:47 PM ET (scheduled 7:53 PM ET → 10:20 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at VRB more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to VRB?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at VRB

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from IAD are often late

↓ Arrivals into VRB at that hour are usually not late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

VRB (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 641 · IAD → VRB

Odds over time

How late did it get to VRB?