NZ 1 · JFK → AKL

departs 9:09 PM ET · arrives 6:59 AM NZDT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at AKL more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to AKL?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ Gusts to 31 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at JFK that day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into AKL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.01 in

AKL (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

NZ 1 · JFK → AKL

Odds over time

How late will it get to AKL?