OH 5127 · PWM → PHL

departs 4:52 PM ET · arrives 6:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from PWM are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at PWM that day

Weather at each end

PWM (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5127 · PWM → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?