OH 5161 · PHL → TYS

departs 3:50 PM ET · arrives 5:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to TYS?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ TYS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precipnone

TYS (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5161 · PHL → TYS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TYS?