OH 5430 · ECP → DFW

took off 7:29 PM CT · expected to land 9:11 PM CT (scheduled 7:15 PM CT → 9:31 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

1% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

LIVE

On time or early
99%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 4.9 in of rain forecast at ECP that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ ECP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ECP (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip5.58 in

DFW (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5430 · ECP → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?