OH 5550 · PHL → ORF

departs 8:24 PM ET · arrives 9:40 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi forecast at PHL that day

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precipnone

ORF (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5550 · PHL → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?