Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3221
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
OO 3221 · MRY → SAN
departs 3:05 PM PT · arrives 4:39 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave MRY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↑
3pm departures from MRY are often late
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at MRY that day
Weather at each end
MRY (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.