OO 4717 · MRY → LAX

departs 8:01 AM PT · arrives 9:37 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi forecast at MRY that day

↑ 8am departures from MRY are often late

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MRY (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4717 · MRY → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?