Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4729
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
OO 4729 · MRY → SFO
departs 3:30 PM PT · arrives 4:28 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±5 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MRY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
3pm departures from MRY are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MRY (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.