OO 4786 · IAH → MSY

took off 9:56 PM CT · expected to land 10:44 PM CT (scheduled 9:52 PM CT → 11:20 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSY?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

MSY (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4786 · IAH → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?