Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4990
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
OO 4990 · ORD → FSD
departs 2:20 PM CT · arrives 4:14 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 24%
Wed 10/7 26%
Thu 10/8 23%
Fri 10/9 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at FSD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FSD?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
2pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FSD (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.