Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5041
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
OO 5041 · LYH → IAD
departs 8:15 PM ET · arrives 9:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 12%
Thu 10/8 10%
Fri 10/9 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave LYH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.4 mi forecast at LYH that day
Weather at each end
LYH (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.4 mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.