Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5865
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
OO 5865 · SBN → ORD
departs 6:26 PM ET · arrives 6:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBN
Weather at each end
SBN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.