OO 6195 · MRY → PHX

departs 6:05 AM PT · arrives 8:03 AM MT

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi forecast at MRY that day

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from MRY are usually not late

Weather at each end

MRY (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.2 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 6195 · MRY → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?