OO 6494 · PHX → RNO

departs 1:58 PM MT · arrives 4:07 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to RNO?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RNO (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 6494 · PHX → RNO

Odds over time

How late will it get to RNO?