PT 5817 · PHL → ROC

took off 10:06 PM ET · expected to land 10:55 PM ET (scheduled 10:06 PM ET → 11:35 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ROC?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 10pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ PHL is busy at that time

↓ ROC usually runs smoothly

↓ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi forecast at PHL that day

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precipnone

ROC (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

PT 5817 · PHL → ROC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ROC?