PT 5862 · CAE → PHL

departs 6:47 PM ET · arrives 8:50 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 6pm departures from CAE are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi forecast at PHL that day

Weather at each end

CAE (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.18 in

PHL (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

PT 5862 · CAE → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?