PT 6012 · ILM → PHL

departs 6:57 PM ET · arrives 8:42 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi forecast at PHL that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ILM (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.09 in

PHL (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

PT 6012 · ILM → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?