QK 539 · IAD → YTZ

took off 5:53 PM ET · landed 7:03 PM EDT (scheduled 5:44 PM ET → 7:19 PM EDT)

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at YTZ more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to YTZ?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into YTZ at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

YTZ (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 539 · IAD → YTZ

Odds over time

How late did it get to YTZ?