QX 2018 · SAN → LAS

departs 4:57 PM PT · arrives 6:22 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

90% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
42%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2018 · SAN → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?