QX 2025 · SBA → PDX

took off 5:45 PM PT · expected to land 7:41 PM PT (scheduled 5:36 PM PT → 8:01 PM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PDX?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into PDX at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at PDX that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA

Weather at each end

SBA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2025 · SBA → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?