QX 2417 · SEA → ELP

took off 2:18 PM PT · expected to land 6:13 PM MT (scheduled 1:58 PM PT → 6:28 PM MT)

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ELP?

LIVE

On time or early
99%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

ELP (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2417 · SEA → ELP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELP?