Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SUN COUNTRY · FLIGHT SY 3095 IN THE AIR (OFF 8:59 PM ET, ETA 10:15 PM MT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Yesterday

SY 3095 · BWI → PHX

took off 8:59 PM ET · expected to land 10:15 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

SY 3095 · BWI → PHX

Odds over time