Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1147 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

UA 1147 · SFO → SAN

departs 2:20 PM PT · arrives 4:07 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Visibility down to 1 mi forecast at SFO that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility1 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1147 · SFO → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?