UA 1155 · IAH → SMF

departs 9:53 AM CT · arrives 11:52 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9am departures from IAH are often late

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↑ IAH is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1155 · IAH → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?