UA 1165 · IAD → MCI

departs 6:07 PM ET · arrives 7:58 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from IAD are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1165 · IAD → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?