Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1202 IN THE AIR (OFF 7:57 PM CT, ETA 9:31 PM PT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

UA 1202 · IAH → SFO

took off 7:57 PM CT · expected to land 9:31 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±1 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 7pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1202 · IAH → SFO

Odds over time