Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1233 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5 Tomorrow

UA 1233 · EWR → RDU

departs 7:20 PM ET · arrives 9:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at RDU that day

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1233 · EWR → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?