Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1265 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5 Tomorrow

UA 1265 · SFO → SEA

departs 2:00 PM PT · arrives 4:20 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1265 · SFO → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?