UA 1309 · MCO → EWR

departs 5:57 AM ET · arrives 8:43 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

3% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from MCO are usually not late

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.37 in

EWR (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1309 · MCO → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?