Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1353 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

UA 1353 · IAH → TPA

departs 7:25 AM CT · arrives 10:45 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

↑ IAH is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling8,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1353 · IAH → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?