UA 1399 · AUS → EWR

departs 2:30 PM CT · arrives 7:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from AUS are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,233 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling6,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1399 · AUS → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?