Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1510 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5 Tomorrow

UA 1510 · DEN → PHL

departs 5:54 PM MT · arrives 11:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±4 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling333 ft Visibility6.66667 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1510 · DEN → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?