UA 1519 · ORD → SMF

departs 4:05 PM CT · arrives 6:26 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1519 · ORD → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?