Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1621 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5 Tomorrow

UA 1621 · MCO → ORD

departs 7:40 PM ET · arrives 10:00 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 33h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ 7pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.27 in

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1621 · MCO → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?