Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1626 LANDED 3:27 PM ET, ~13 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

UA 1626 · MCO → EWR

took off 1:12 PM ET · landed 3:27 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±1 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at MCO that day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from MCO are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at EWR that day

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.17 in

EWR (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1626 · MCO → EWR

Odds over time