Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1686 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5 Tomorrow

UA 1686 · PHX → ORD

departs 2:48 PM MT · arrives 8:30 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ 2pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1686 · PHX → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?