Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1711 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

UA 1711 · IAH → AUS

departs 4:20 PM CT · arrives 5:27 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1711 · IAH → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?