Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1818 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5 Tomorrow

UA 1818 · HNL → SFO

departs 1:25 PM HT · arrives 9:23 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±4 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1818 · HNL → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?