Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1849 LANDED 10:50 AM MT, ~10 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

UA 1849 · FSD → DEN

took off 10:34 AM CT · landed 10:50 AM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ 9am departures from FSD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at FSD that day

Weather at each end

FSD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1849 · FSD → DEN

Odds over time