Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1950 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

UA 1950 · IAH → MFE

departs 8:30 PM CT · arrives 9:51 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MFE?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.1 in of rain forecast at MFE that day

↑ 8pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MFE (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.91 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1950 · IAH → MFE

Odds over time

How late will it get to MFE?