UA 2133 · LGA → IAH

took off 9:04 PM ET · expected to land 11:18 PM CT (scheduled 8:20 PM ET → 11:21 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAH?

LIVE

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 32 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at LGA that day

↑ 8pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2133 · LGA → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?