Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2219 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

UA 2219 · SJU → EWR

departs 1:00 AM AT · arrives 5:10 AM ET

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU

↑ 1am departures from SJU are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SJU (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

EWR (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2219 · SJU → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?