Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 233 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5 Tomorrow

UA 233 · LAX → SFO

departs 5:05 PM PT · arrives 6:33 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±3 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 233 · LAX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?