Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2407 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

UA 2407 · IAH → SAN

departs 8:03 PM CT · arrives 9:24 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±3 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8.66667 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2407 · IAH → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?