UA 2411 · TYS → DEN

took off 5:02 PM ET · expected to land 5:28 PM MT (scheduled 4:49 PM ET → 5:56 PM MT)

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TYS (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2411 · TYS → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?